The US economy is continuing to prove resilient this year. The unemployment rate on the other side of the pond fell again in June, standing at a historically low 4.2% and thereby lending support to private consumption. In the Eurozone, by contrast, consumption is less strong, reflecting rather weak consumer sentiment. While economic growth in the Eurozone is benefiting from fiscal expansion in Germany, it remains less dynamic than in the US owing to the region’s greater dependence on imported energy. Swiss economic indicators have improved, pointing to stronger economic growth than in the Eurozone. The picture in China is mixed: although exports continue to grow strongly, retail sales are less robust than has been the case in recent years.

Currencies

Despite the uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, the Swiss franc has so far failed to strengthen. By contrast, the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone have benefited from higher commodity prices. The euro and the US dollar initially fluctuated against the Swiss franc but subsequently staged a recovery, supported by changing interest-rate expectations and the status of the greenback as a safe-haven currency. For the remainder of the year, however, it is not expected that either the euro or the US dollar will appreciate further against the Swiss franc.

Bonds

While at the start of the year the US Federal Reserve was still contemplating interest-rate cuts, these are no longer under consideration. Following its rate increase in June, the European Central Bank most recently left its key interest rates unchanged. The renewed escalation in Iran and the associated increase in inflation expectations nevertheless temporarily led to higher capital market interest rates, as investors demanded increased yields to offset the expected loss of purchasing power. Inflationary pressures are less marked in Switzerland, which is why interest rates have risen less sharply. Corporate bond risk premiums have changed little overall, however, as the lion’s share of issuers continue to be in a very solid position. We are maintaining our tactical underweight in bonds. Accordingly, our portfolio now exhibits a shorter duration positioning relative to the benchmark.

TAA Balanced CHF

Real estate

Capital market activity, including capital raisings and new listings, has eased somewhat over the summer but is expected to pick up once more in the autumn. Concerns about rising interest rates and political issues (e.g. immigration-related debates and housing initiatives in Zurich) recently created uncertainty. However, the outcome of the votes, which was favourable for the real estate market, provided short-term support to prices. Over the longer term, elevated valuations and concerns about higher interest rates resulting from rising inflation remain risks for this asset class. Although expected returns continue to exceed those available from bonds, valuations still have room to catch up relative to equities. For this reason, we are maintaining our overweight position.

Equities

Swiss equities continue to be supported by the high quality of many companies, solid balance sheets and the strong position of defensive sectors with reliable earnings trends. Within the market, large-cap stocks have recently outperformed their small- and mid-cap counterparts, as investors continue to favour stability and quality. The current environment remains characterised by political uncertainty, muted economic growth and expectations of further interest-rate hikes. Small- and mid-cap stocks remain selectively attractive but are likely to realise more of their potential only once economic conditions improve and investors’ willingness to take risks increases. Global equity markets have remained stable overall. Robust corporate earnings are lending support to the markets, while high valuations, particularly in the technology and AI sector, and the challenging interest-rate environment are limiting further upside potential. Against this background, we are maintaining a neutral equity weighting. Within global equities, we continue to favour low-volatility US equities, which have proven especially resilient over the past month thanks to their defensive character and higher weighting in healthcare stocks.

Commodities

The gold price declined over the past month. Higher real interest rates, falling inflation and continued outflows from gold ETFs weighed on performance. At the same time, continued robust demand on the part of the central banks remains supportive. The commodity markets delivered a mixed performance overall: while agricultural commodities benefited from weather-related supply risks and geopolitical tensions, industrial metals suffered from weaker growth prospects. Precious metals found themselves under pressure as a result of the higher interest-rate environment. Overall, commodities remain an important source of diversification within a portfolio, even though mixed signals predominate in the short term. Against this backdrop, we are maintaining our neutral positioning with respect to gold and commodities overall.

Private markets

Private markets continue to operate in a challenging environment despite a gradual recovery. Capital inflows remain concentrated on established managers with strong track records. In the private equity space, the continuing backlog of exits and demanding valuations are delaying a recovery in the asset class. At the same time, the growing use of artificial intelligence, especially in the software sector, is transforming the investment landscape and increasing the importance of carefully selecting attractive business models. In private credit, the environment remains fundamentally attractive, although rigorous credit assessments are becoming increasingly important. We remain convinced of the quality of our manager selection and are maintaining our current allocation.

Digital assets

The recovery in digital assets continues. With regard to the largest crypto asset, Bitcoin appears to be well advanced in its bottoming phase. This view is primarily supported by on-chain analysis, a methodology typically applied to digital assets. From a chart-technical perspective, however, key technical levels still need to be broken. The options market continues to warrant caution. It indicates that derivatives traders remain positioned relatively defensively. The macroeconomic environment also remains challenging for risk assets such as crypto assets. Against this background, we are maintaining our neutral weighting for the time being.

TAA Plus Balanced CHF

Contact a client advisor for more information.

^{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and is not geared to the conclusion of a contract. It only contains the market and investment commentaries of Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. and an assessment of selected financial instruments. Consequently, this publication does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation, and is not an offer for the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. does not provide legal or tax advice. In addition, Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this document; in particular, it does not accept any liability for losses of any kind, whether direct, indirect or incidental, which may be incurred as a result of using the information contained in this document and/or arising from the risks inherent in the financial markets. Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).}

Editorial deadline: 24 July 2026

Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd.
Dreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 Zurich
T +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.ch
www.maerki-baumann.ch